Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (2025, Week 10)

01 Rapeseed

In the 10th week (March 3-March 7, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 3.007 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was down; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, which was up. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country remained stable. The trading atmosphere in various markets is general, the inventory is low, and traders are willing to support prices. The price of high-quality sources is relatively firm, which may be beneficial to rapeseed prices. Oil mills replenish stocks on demand, and the market performance is relatively calm. Rapeseed oil inventories are high, and after the market replenishment is over, the trading atmosphere is general, and oil mills buy as they use. It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply of domestic rapeseed is slightly tight recently, and the demand for rapeseed is not good. However, since the amount of rapeseed meal arriving at the port may decrease in the future, in order to meet the domestic market demand, the rapeseed crushing volume may increase, which is beneficial to the rapeseed market, so the price of rapeseed may rise. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 10th week (March 3-March 7, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,868 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly this week, and the closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2505 on Friday was 8798 yuan/ton. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the United States granted a one-month exemption period for Canadian and Mexican goods, trade tensions have eased, and the tension in the rapeseed market has eased; second, the MPOB report to be released next week predicts more bullish factors; third, Indonesia's B40 plan may continue to be postponed, and the tension in the oil and fat market has eased.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The import volume of rapeseed to the port in the first quarter was low, and the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed oil and rapeseed was reduced. However, in terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand is weak and rapeseed oil destocking is slow, so the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in my country is still high.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The current international trade situation is relatively tense, and the US tariffs and other policies are constantly changing, causing the oil and fat market to rise and fall. Therefore, pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States in the later period.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the 10th week (March 3-March 7, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices continued to fall this week. The main reason is that the US tariffs have led to a drop in Canadian rapeseed prices, which means that rapeseed meal may flow into my country's domestic market in large quantities in the future, suppressing rapeseed meal prices. Domestic coastal rapeseed meal stocks are average, and subsequent arrivals are uncertain, so supply is temporarily tightened. The aquaculture industry is about to start, and rapeseed meal demand is improving, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. Rapeseed meal prices are expected to rise in the short term, because my country has increased its 100% tariff on Canadian oil residues, and my country's rapeseed meal imports rely on Canada. It is expected that my country's rapeseed meal supply will be tight in April and May. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.