Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (week 9, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 9th week (February 24-February 28, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 3.006 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country remained stable. The trading atmosphere in various markets was general, the inventory was low, and the price of high-quality sources was relatively strong. Oil mills replenished stocks on demand, and the market performance was relatively calm. The rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 411,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from last week. The February supply and demand report released by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture showed that Canada's rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to be 17.5 million tons, the same as last month, and a decrease of 1.9% from 17.845 million tons last year. On the other hand, the US tariff statement continues to change, continuing to impact the Canadian rapeseed market. The amount of rapeseed arriving at my country's ports in the first quarter decreased significantly, and the pressure on my country's rapeseed supply was slightly relieved.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply of domestic rapeseed has been slightly tight recently, and demand has weakened after the price increase, so the price of rapeseed may continue to be stable. International relations have been repeatedly tense, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the United States will continue to increase tariffs. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 9th week (February 24-February 28, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,878 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and fell this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 8,826 yuan/ton on Friday. The influencing factors are as follows: First, the United States continues to impose tariffs on Canada; second, palm oil production has decreased due to heavy rains in Southeast Asia, and China and India are less willing to purchase palm oil; third, the market is questioning the implementation of the B40 policy, and it is necessary to wait and see the implementation of B40 in March.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The import volume of rapeseed to the port in the first quarter has declined significantly, and the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed oil has eased. However, due to poor demand, rapeseed oil inventory pressure continues to be high. At present, the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in China is still at a high level.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The current international trade situation is uncertain, and policies such as tariffs are constantly changing, causing the oil and oilseed market to rise and fall. Therefore, pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States in the later period.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 9 (February 24-February 28, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices stopped rising and fell this week. There are more uncertainties in the rapeseed meal market recently. Rapeseed meal demand is good, rapeseed meal inventory is average, and subsequent arrival at the port is uncertain, and supply is gradually tightening. The aquaculture industry has begun to stock up, and demand is good, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the operating rate of rapeseed oil mills will gradually increase in the short term, and the spot speculation sentiment will cool down quickly. Rapeseed meal may continue to fall under pressure. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.