Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (week 8, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 8th week (February 17-February 21, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 3.004 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China remained stable. The trading atmosphere in various markets was general, the inventory in the Yunnan market was low, and the price of high-quality sources was relatively strong. Oil mills replenished stocks on demand, and the market was relatively calm. In terms of international rapeseed, Canadian rapeseed prices rose again, supporting the Canadian rapeseed market. There has been no announcement on the statement of opinions on the anti-dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed on February 20, and anti-dumping is still unknown, and the supply sentiment on the forward end of rapeseed has become tense again. At present, the inventory level of Canadian rapeseed is at a low level, the pressure on international rapeseed supply has been significantly reduced, and the rapeseed price trend is strong.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply of domestic rapeseed has been slightly tight recently, and demand has weakened after the price increase, so the price of rapeseed may continue to be stable. Sino-Canadian relations have been repeatedly tense, and attention should be paid to the report of the hearing on February 20. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of the anti-dumping incident.

02 Rapeseed oil 

In the 8th week (February 17-February 21, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,928 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rebounded this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 8,839 yuan/ton on Friday. As the China-Canada meeting has not yet produced a result, the market has concerns about the supply of rapeseed, which supports the rapeseed oil market. The arrival of Indonesia's Eid al-Fitr and the expected full implementation of B40 in March have made the supply of palm oil tight, driving the oil and fat market up.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant, and rapeseed oil stocks remain at a relatively high level. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil plants is not high, and the start-up time of each oil plant has been delayed. The pressure on the supply side has eased, but the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is still high.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will rise in the short term. At present, there are variables in the international trade situation, and policies such as tariffs are constantly changing, which makes the oil and fat market rise and fall from time to time. Therefore, pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States in the later period.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 8 (February 17-February 21, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week. Canadian rapeseed prices rose, and the rise in raw materials supported the rapeseed meal market. On the other hand, the weekly crushing volume was low, the rapeseed meal supply was reduced, and the aquaculture industry began to stock up, and the demand was good, resulting in a low level of rapeseed meal inventory, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. Recently, the weather in Argentina's soybean producing areas has turned dry again, causing market concerns to increase, causing soybean meal prices to rise, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that rapeseed meal oil plants will gradually resume operation in the short term, and the spot speculation sentiment will cool down rapidly, and rapeseed meal may fall under pressure. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean and rapeseed meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.