Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 13, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 13th week (March 24-March 28, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 3.021 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country remained basically stable, with prices in Henan and Inner Mongolia rising slightly. There are fewer high-quality sources in the market, prices are relatively firm, and traders are slow to move goods. At present, the trading atmosphere in various domestic markets is general, oil mills replenish stocks on demand, and the domestic rapeseed market has not changed much. It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term, and the rapeseed crushing volume may continue to rise. In addition, the reduction in domestic rapeseed inventories is good for the rapeseed market, so the price of rapeseed may also rise. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that as of the week of March 23, Canada's canola exports decreased by 41.2% to 113,800 tons from the previous week, compared with 193,600 tons the previous week. From August 1, 2024 to March 23, 2025, Canada's canola exports were 6.6324 million tons, an increase of 75.2% from 3.786 million tons in the same period of the previous year. As of March 23, Canada's commercial canola stocks were 1.4284 million tons.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 13th week (March 24-March 28, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the price of rapeseed oil futures fell slightly this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2505 on Friday was 9271 yuan/ton. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, palm oil inventory is still low, and there are few ship purchases and ship washes; second, in terms of rapeseed crushing, imports are cautious, and it is difficult to increase ship purchases significantly in the later period. Third, domestic soybean oil inventory is slightly low, which slightly supports the oil and fat market. Fourth, the market speculation on US biofuel demand has cooled down.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed is sufficient, but in terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand continues to be poor, and rapeseed oil destocking is slow.

It is expected that the price of rapeseed oil futures will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. After the market consumes various emotions, rapeseed oil will return to the fundamentals. Rapeseed oil supply is strong and weak, so rapeseed oil may still run weakly. Pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States, as well as the arrival volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the later period.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the 13th week (March 24-March 28, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week. Increased global soybean supply puts pressure on rapeseed meal prices. Domestic rapeseed imports have increased significantly, and the market supply is sufficient. In addition, domestic rapeseed meal inventories are at a high level, and transactions are average, causing rapeseed meal prices to fall weakly. Downstream demand is weak, and feed companies are not willing to purchase. Due to the decline in pig inventory and the reduction in feed demand, the demand for rapeseed meal has decreased. It is expected that rapeseed meal prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the later period, more attention will be paid to the soybean and rapeseed meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.