Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 15, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 15th week (April 7-April 11, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 3.012 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.13-3.15 yuan/jin, falling; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China were stable with a slight decline, and prices in Anhui and Jiangsu fell. There are fewer high-quality sources in the market, prices are relatively firm, and traders are slow to sell. New rapeseed is about to be listed, and traders are waiting for the new season rapeseed to be listed. They are not enthusiastic about the old season rapeseed, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. At present, the inventory of oil meal is high, and oil mills are suppressing prices, which suppresses rapeseed prices. It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable before the new season rapeseed is listed. The inventory of old season rapeseed will decrease, and traders are waiting for the new season rapeseed to be listed. Restocking on demand, the sales are not fast, so the price of rapeseed may also fall. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

In terms of international rapeseed, from the perspective of global rapeseed in 24/25, the EU rapeseed production was reduced by 370,000 tons month-on-month, China's rapeseed imports were increased by 1 million tons month-on-month, and rapeseed meal imports were reduced by 800,000 tons month-on-month. my country's rapeseed imports are expected to reach an average of 300,000 tons per month in March and April. After May, rapeseed imports will further decrease, and domestic rapeseed stocks may gradually decline.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 15th week (April 7-April 11, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,328 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the price of rapeseed oil futures this week rose slightly compared with last week, and the closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2505 on Friday was 9,310 yuan/ton. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the escalation of Sino-US tariff policies has led to tensions between China and the United States, affecting the import volume of soybeans and boosting the rapeseed oil market. Second, the decline in crude oil prices has affected biodiesel consumption, and India's vegetable oil imports have increased, which is good for the rapeseed oil market. Third, Malaysia's export data is still not good, and it will enter the seasonal production season in the later period, and palm oil will be under pressure, dragging down the rapeseed oil market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. Domestic rapeseed oil sales are average, with inventories of 757,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 103%. The supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed is sufficient, but in terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand continues to be poor, and rapeseed oil destocking is slow.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, so rapeseed oil may still run weakly. In the later period, we should pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States, as well as the arrival volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 15 (April 7-11, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose slightly this week. The oil mills were running less, and the pressure on rapeseed meal inventory was relieved. Although some feed companies are interested in buying at the bottom to replenish stocks, the spot transaction volume is still insufficient, and the actual market demand has not been met, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that rapeseed meal prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the later period, more attention will be paid to the soybean meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.