Rapeseed, Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal Trading Overview and Analysis Forecast (Week 47, 2024)

01 Rapeseed 

In the 47th week (November 18-November 22, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.977 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country rose steadily. Rapeseed prices in Qinghai rose slightly, and trading was active, driving up domestic rapeseed prices. The market inventory of high-quality rapeseed is small, supporting the rapeseed market. As the aquaculture industry is in the off-season, rapeseed prices are suppressed to a certain extent. Oil mills replenish stocks on demand, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. In terms of international rapeseed, the easing of Sino-Canadian trade has a certain impact on rapeseed imports. Canada's rapeseed is abundant and concentrated, dragging down rapeseed market prices. Due to concerns that anti-dumping may affect rapeseed imports in the early stage, my country's rapeseed imports hit a new high in October, with a total import of 843,000 tons, an increase of 6.6% month-on-month and 2347.91% year-on-year. Imports are expected to decrease in the later period.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market has been trading steadily recently, and prices have not changed much. Canadian rapeseed is on the market in batches, prices have fallen, and import costs have dropped. However, the import volume in September and October was extremely high, and there has been a turning point in the recent Sino-Canadian trade relations. Imports may be reduced in the future, which is good for the domestic rapeseed market. In the future, we will pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, Sino-Canadian trade relations, and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed Oil 

In the 47th week (November 18-November 22, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,098 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell sharply again this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2409 closed at 8,979 yuan/ton on Friday. The market expects the Indonesian government's biodiesel plan B40 to be postponed. It is expected that the plan will be implemented in stages. As China-Canada relations may be suspended, the market expects that rapeseed anti-dumping may be temporarily shelved, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market, and rapeseed oil leads the decline of other oils. In addition, as palm oil rose to a high level, the soybean-palm price gap increased, and consumer demand shifted to soybean oil. The weakening demand for palm oil and the high price forced it to fluctuate and adjust.

In the spot market, the record large number of domestic rapeseeds arrived at the port in September and October, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remained high, the supply of rapeseed oil was sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed oil was at a relatively high level, which was bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The demand for rapeseed oil market was stable, the inventory of rapeseed oil was high, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil were strong in supply and weak in demand.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices may continue to fluctuate and fall in the short term. The large number of imported rapeseeds arrived at the port, the supply of rapeseed oil was sufficient, and the rapeseed oil continued to accumulate, which was bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The support surface of rapeseed oil has a weakening trend, so rapeseed oil is expected to run weakly.

03 Rapeseed Meal 

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 47 (November 18-November 22, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week, and the loose international soybean supply dragged down the rapeseed meal market price, and rapeseed meal followed the soybean meal price to fall. Brazil, the main international soybean producing area, has a fast planting progress, good weather conditions, and strong expectations for bumper yields. Rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off-season, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. In the spot market, the fundamentals of rapeseed meal are still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the supply of rapeseed meal is sufficient. In terms of demand, rapeseed meal transactions are sluggish, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weakened due to the off-season of aquaculture. The actual trading volume is general, and downstream purchases are cautious.

It is expected that rapeseed meal will run weakly in the short term, rapeseed meal lacks favorable factors to support it, strong supply and weak demand, and soybean meal is more cost-effective than rapeseed meal, which suppresses the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China and Canada and China and the United States.