Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis (Week 49, 2024)

01 Rapeseed

In the 49th week (December 2-December 6, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.980 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China remained basically stable. There were fluctuations in Hunan and Henan. The market's purchasing enthusiasm was not high, which suppressed the rapeseed market. The domestic high-quality rapeseed inventory bottomed out, supporting the domestic rapeseed market. As the aquaculture industry is in the off-season, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak, which has a certain suppression on rapeseed prices. In terms of international rapeseed, it is expected that my country's rapeseed imports from Canada in December will decrease from 500,000 tons in November to 250,000 tons. Due to the reduction in imports, Canada's rapeseed inventory pressure is relatively large, while my country's soybean imports are large. Some oil mills have turned to crushing soybean oil with lower risks, which has put pressure on Canada's rapeseed exports. Statistics Canada expects rapeseed production to fall 7% from the same period last year to 17.8 million tons, lower than analysts' estimates of 18.5 million tons. The overall report is good for rapeseed.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply and demand of the domestic rapeseed market has been relatively balanced recently, and prices have not changed much. As for imported rapeseed, due to the decline in import costs, the amount of rapeseed arriving at the port may continue to increase, which is bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. In the future, we should pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents

02 Rapeseed oil 

In the 49th week (December 2-December 6, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,860 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell sharply again this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 8,804 yuan/ton on Friday. South America's soybean harvest is expected to be good, and soybean oil is weak, dragging down the rapeseed oil market. Excessive rain in Southeast Asia has once again aggravated the reduction in palm oil production. The Indonesian government emphasized the implementation of the B40 policy as scheduled, and at the same time raised the export tax and export special tax in December, supporting the continued rise in palm oil market prices. The latest Canadian rapeseed report predicts that rapeseed production will be lower than analysts' forecasts, forming a small support for rapeseed oil.

In the spot market, domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant in the short term, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remains high, and rapeseed oil stocks are sufficient, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The demand for rapeseed oil market is stable, rapeseed oil stocks are high, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand. Expectations for easing of Sino-Canadian trade relations have increased, and anti-dumping on rapeseed may be temporarily shelved.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices may continue to fluctuate and fall in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand for rapeseed oil will not change for the time being. There are many negative factors in the oil and fat market, and the weak performance of global oil and fat has dragged down the rapeseed oil market price.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 49 (December 2-December 6, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal fell this week, and after a slight rebound last week, it fell sharply again this week. On the supply side, as coastal oil mills maintain a high operating rate, rapeseed meal supply is still sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed has increased to 600,000 tons, the highest point in the past three years. On the demand side, the aquatic industry is gradually entering the off-season, which leads to relatively small demand for rapeseed meal, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market.

It is expected that rapeseed meal will be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is more cost-effective than rapeseed meal, which suppresses the rapeseed meal market. Rapeseed meal inventory has reached a high level, and demand is weak, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. In the later stage, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower meal and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China and Canada and China and the United States.