Peanut and peanut oil trading summary and analysis forecast (week 8, 2025)

01 Peanut

In the 8th week (February 17-February 21, 2025), the national average price of peanuts was 8,417 yuan/ton. The prices of peanuts in various regions are shown in the following table:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of peanuts fell in some areas. Due to the decline in peanut meal prices, the profit margin of oil mills has continued to fall, and the demand for peanuts has decreased. Some dealers believe that the possibility of another drop in peanut prices is not high. The purchase situation of oil mills in some areas has improved. At present, the arrival volume of oil mills that have been opened is not large, and the transaction price has stabilized. The recent profit margin of peanuts is not high, so the cost-effectiveness of imported peanuts is not high, and the import volume continues to decline. In terms of supply, peanut production has increased and the supply is relatively loose. February is the off-season for imports, and the import volume is small. The peanut inventory of oil mills has accumulated to a high level, and the inventory pressure is relatively large; in terms of demand, it has entered the traditional off-season for demand. Affected by the decline in peanut meal prices, the profit margin of oil mills has fallen. The peanut market is quiet, the overall demand is sluggish, the peanut inventory has accumulated to a high level, and the loose supply suppresses the increase in peanut prices. It is expected that peanuts will maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

02 Peanut oil

In the 8th week (February 17-February 21, 2025), the national average price of peanut oil is: 15,575 yuan/ton. The reference prices are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the prices of ordinary peanut oil and small-pressed fragrant peanut oil are stable. In terms of demand, peanut oil has entered the traditional off-season, and the demand from food processing plants is limited, so the sales speed has slowed down. In terms of supply, the operating rate of oil mills has increased after the holidays, and the supply pressure of peanut oil has increased. The recent increase in the prices of the three major oils in the world has supported the peanut oil market. It is expected that in the short term, the price of peanut oil is likely to remain stable. The bumper harvest of peanuts and the increase in peanut oil production are bearish for the peanut oil market, so the price of peanut oil may remain stable. However, peanut oil is not cost-effective, and coupled with the off-season, there is still a risk of falling.