Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 12, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 12th week (March 17-March 21, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 3.019 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country remained basically stable, with a slight increase in Sichuan. The surplus in the Yunnan market is low, the price of high-quality sources is relatively firm, and traders are slow to move goods. At present, the trading atmosphere in various domestic markets is general, the inventory is low, and oil mills replenish stocks on demand. The domestic rapeseed market is relatively calm. It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term, and the rapeseed crushing volume may continue to rise, which is good for the rapeseed market, so the price of rapeseed may also rise. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

Canadian Rapeseed Market: The Canadian Grain Council said that as of the week of March 16, rapeseed exports were about 194,000 tons, which was basically the same as 197,000 tons last week. The export volume from 2024/25 to now is 6.518 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 76.9%.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 12th week (March 17-March 21, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,228 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the price of rapeseed oil futures fell slightly this week compared with last week, and the closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2505 on Friday was 9165 yuan/ton. The following reasons affected the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the Fed's interest rate cut failed to proceed as expected, which further strengthened the US dollar; second, the MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased by 4.31% month-on-month to 1.51 million tons, higher than market expectations. The market's expectations for the launch of Indonesia's B40 policy weakened again, dragging down the palm oil market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The import volume of rapeseed to the port in the first quarter was low, and the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed and rapeseed was reduced. However, in terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand continued to be poor, and rapeseed oil destocking was slow, so my country's rapeseed oil inventory is still at a high level.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Market policies will tend to stabilize, and various policies will be gradually implemented, which will boost rapeseed oil prices. After the market consumes sentiment, rapeseed oil will return to fundamentals, so rapeseed oil may still run weakly. In the later period, we should pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States, as well as the arrival volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 12 (March 17-21, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week. Market sentiment towards rapeseed meal tariff policy has cooled significantly. At the same time, domestic rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level, supply is loose in some regions, and transactions are average, causing rapeseed meal prices to fall weakly. Although the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, there has been no increase in downstream procurement, and the state of replenishment of inventory has been maintained. It is expected that rapeseed meal prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the later period, more attention will be paid to the soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.