Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis (Week 48, 2024)

01 Rapeseed

In the 48th week (November 25-November 29, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.980 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China remained basically stable. Prices in Yunnan rose slightly. At present, the domestic high-quality rapeseed inventory is relatively small, supporting the domestic rapeseed market. The market's purchasing enthusiasm is not high, suppressing the rapeseed market. As the aquaculture industry is in the off-season, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak, which has a certain suppression on rapeseed prices. In terms of international rapeseed, the global rapeseed stock market price has fallen due to the increase in the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed by the United States. Coupled with the drag of soybean oil, rapeseed prices have continued to fall, which is bearish for the rapeseed market.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply and demand of the domestic rapeseed market has been relatively balanced recently, and the price has not changed much. As for imported rapeseed, due to the decline in import costs, the domestic rapeseed arrival volume may continue to increase, which is bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. Both rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal have weakened, dragging down the rapeseed market. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 48th week (November 25-November 29, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,968 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell sharply again this week, and the closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2409 on Friday was 8,812 yuan/ton. Malaysian palm oil production continued to decline in November, and Indonesia once again promised to implement the B40 policy as scheduled on January 1 next year, boosting the palm oil market and supporting the rapeseed oil market. However, as the United States intends to increase import tariffs on Canada, the market is concerned about the reduction in Canadian rapeseed market exports, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market.

In the spot market, domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remains high, and rapeseed oil inventories remain relatively high, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The demand for rapeseed oil is stable, the rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices may continue to fluctuate and fall in the short term, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil, strong in supply and weak in demand, will not change for the time being. There are fewer positive factors in the market recently. You can pay more attention to the latest rapeseed production forecast released by Canada on December 5. Analysts say that rapeseed production may fall from 19 million tons to 17-18.5 million tons, which may form a support and slightly boost the rapeseed oil market.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 48 (November 25-November 29, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of supply, the supply of rapeseed meal is sufficient due to the high operating rate of coastal oil mills. In terms of demand, rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off-season, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. In the spot market, the fundamentals of rapeseed meal are still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The market trading volume is average, and downstream purchases are cautious and mainly wait-and-see.

It is expected that rapeseed meal will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and there will not be large fluctuations. Rapeseed meal has strong supply and weak demand, and soybean meal has a better price-performance ratio than rapeseed meal, which suppresses the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower and rapeseed meal, the port volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China and Canada and China and the United States.