Sunflower and sunflower oil trading review and analysis and forecast (Week 49, 2024)

01 Sunflower

Week 49 (December 2-December 6, 2024) The domestic sunflower price is relatively stable this week. The specific prices in each region are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic sunflower prices were stable. The arrival volume of major domestic sunflowers was small, and the supply was tight, supporting the sunflower market. In terms of demand, the sales speed of local sunflowers in Xinjiang was acceptable, while the prices of imported sunflower kernels and raw kernels were high. Traders were waiting and watching, and the sales speed was slow, which was bearish for the sunflower market. The price of foreign sunflowers fell, and the import cost fell, dragging down the sunflower market.

It is expected that the price of sunflowers may fall in the short term. The price of sunflowers is too high, the sales speed is slow, and the foreign prices of sunflowers in Russia and Ukraine are still falling, which is bearish for the sunflower market. The prices of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseed are weak, dragging down the price market of sunflowers. Pay more attention to the foreign prices and the trend of my country's import volume in the later period.

02 Sunflower oil

Week 49 (December 2-December 6, 2024) The average price of domestic sunflower oil this week is 10,767 yuan/ton, of which the price of first-grade sunflower oil in Jiangsu is 11,100 yuan/ton; the price of first-grade sunflower oil in Xinjiang is 9,800 yuan/ton, and the price of first-grade sunflower oil in Tianjin is 10,900 yuan/ton. The prices in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the domestic sunflower oil price has been slightly lowered. The foreign market price of sunflower oil is relatively stable, and the domestic soybean and rapeseed oil prices continue to decline, dragging down the sunflower oil market. Some oil mills have slightly lowered the price of sunflower oil in order to speed up the delivery. On the supply side, the high cost of oil sunflowers to the port has led to a shortage of domestic supply, which is good for the sunflower oil market. On the demand side, due to the downward price adjustment and the continuous decline in market oil prices, some dealers are on the sidelines and dare not take action, and the market delivery speed is average. This week, soybean and rapeseed oil prices are still falling, suppressing the price of sunflower oil.

It is expected that the price of sunflower oil may remain stable next week, and the possibility of fluctuation is relatively high. The shortage of supply in the market cannot be alleviated. Russia's import tariffs in December have increased, supporting the sunflower oil market. It is about to enter the Spring Festival stocking stage. It is expected that the demand for sunflower oil will be strong, which is good for the sunflower oil market. The foreign market price shows signs of weakening, which may drag down the sunflower oil market.