Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (2nd week of 2025)

01 Rapeseed

The second week (January 6-10, 2025) the national average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.972 yuan/jin, the rapeseed price in Jiangsu is around 3.10-3.14 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hunan is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei is around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan is 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China remained basically stable. In Jiangsu, prices rose slightly due to the good market trading atmosphere. The overall supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices remain basically unchanged. Domestic high-quality rapeseed stocks have bottomed out, and traders are willing to support prices, supporting the domestic rapeseed market. The aquaculture industry is in the off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak, which may continue to suppress rapeseed prices. The recent rapeseed ship purchase is still not good, and the pressure on imported rapeseed stocks has eased, which is good for the rapeseed market. The spot market rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal prices continue to fall, which is bad for the rapeseed market. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, lowering the forecast for rapeseed end-of-year stocks to 1.25 million tons this year. The rapeseed stocks last year were 2.75 million tons. The inventory reduction supports the price of rapeseed.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term, and the supply and demand of the domestic rapeseed market will remain relatively balanced in the near future. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations, and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil 

In the second week (January 6-10, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,770 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Futures market, rapeseed oil futures price this week, rapeseed oil main 2505 closed at 8735 yuan/ton on Friday. The United States announced new guidelines for 45Z biofuel tax credits on Friday, which may shift from waste oil to rapeseed oil, which is good for the oil and fat market. Rapeseed oil stopped falling and rebounded, and the strong willingness of domestic oil mills to support prices supported the rapeseed oil market. The U.S. monthly report USDA lowered the U.S. soybean yield, boosting the oil and fat market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, the domestic supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is still abundant, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remains high, and the rapeseed oil inventory is sufficient and continues to accumulate, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The demand in the rapeseed oil market is stable.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices may rise in the short term. Although the pattern of strong supply and weak demand of rapeseed oil will not change for the time being, multiple positive factors have boosted the rapeseed oil market recently. In the future, we need to focus on the policy side, the results of the Canadian rapeseed anti-dumping investigation, Trump's tariff policy in January, and the impact of this report of the USDA monthly report.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the second week (January 6-10, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal fell this week. In terms of demand, rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off-season, and the rigid support has weakened. In terms of supply, as coastal oil mills maintain a high operating rate, the supply of rapeseed meal is still sufficient, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The downstream pre-year stocking is basically coming to an end, which has led to a relatively increased demand for rapeseed meal, which slightly supports the rapeseed meal market. The USDA supply and demand report released on Friday unexpectedly lowered the yield and production of US soybeans this season, and the end-of-period inventory also decreased simultaneously. The reduction in supply is expected to give rapeseed meal prices a certain upward momentum. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to China-Canada and China-US trade relations.