Sunflower and sunflower oil trading review and analysis and forecast (week 3, 2025)

01 Sunflower

Week 3 (January 13-17, 2025) The domestic sunflower price is stable this week. The specific prices in each region are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic sunflower prices remained stable. Some dealers responded that the pre-holiday season was coming to an end and the sales speed was slow. Oil mills continued to be bearish after the holiday and dared not to stock up more, which was bearish for the sunflower market. The purchase price of Russian sunflowers on the foreign market tended to be stable, and the sales price was slightly reduced. The overall domestic market price did not change much. In terms of supply, the main sunflower producing countries have significantly reduced production. As of November 2024, my country's total import volume was 132,200 tons, down 48.5% from the same period in 2023 (256,700 tons). The arrival volume of sunflowers has been greatly reduced, so the domestic supply of sunflowers is relatively tight, which is good for the sunflower market.

It is expected that the price of sunflowers may fall after the holiday. At present, the sales speed of sunflowers is slow, the demand is weak, and the foreign prices of Russian and Ukrainian sunflowers are weak, which is bearish for the sunflower market. Pay more attention to the foreign prices and the trend of my country's import volume in the later stage.

02 Sunflower oil

Week 3 (January 13-January 17, 2025) The average price of domestic sunflower oil this week is 10,308 yuan/ton, of which the price of first-grade sunflower oil in Jiangsu is 10,500 yuan/ton; the price of first-grade sunflower oil in Xinjiang is 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of first-grade sunflower oil in Tianjin is 10,500 yuan/ton. The prices in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic sunflower oil prices fell steadily, mainly because the sales of sunflower oil were slow. In order to reduce inventory pressure, traders were anxious to cash out before the New Year, so they slightly lowered the price of sunflower oil. On the other hand, rapeseed oil and soybean oil were weak, and sunflower oil followed the decline. In terms of supply, the supply of sunflower oil was tight, and the oil mills were more willing to hold prices, which was good for the sunflower oil market. In terms of demand, the pre-holiday stocking was basically coming to an end, and most dealers replenished stocks in small quantities, demand was weak, and the bearish mentality after the holiday was strong. Replenishment was on demand, which was bad for the sunflower oil market.

It is expected that the price of sunflower oil may remain stable and fluctuate. The fundamentals of sunflower oil are weak in supply and demand, which is difficult to change. The price of sunflower oil may fall after the holiday, so dealers dare not stock up. The foreign market price and domestic oil market are weak, so the price of sunflower oil may still fall.