Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (week 3, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

The third week (January 13-January 17, 2025) the national average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.972 yuan/jin, the rapeseed price in Jiangsu is around 3.10-3.14 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei is around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan is 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China are stable. The overall supply and demand of domestic rapeseed is relatively balanced, and the price remains basically unchanged. The inventory of domestic high-quality rapeseed has bottomed out, and traders are willing to support prices, which supports the domestic rapeseed market. The supply of imported rapeseed ships in my country has improved marginally, and it is expected to start destocking after March. Due to the good profit of rapeseed crushing, there is still a certain space for rapeseed imports.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant recently, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level, so the demand for rapeseed is weak. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the third week (January 13-January 17, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,580 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Futures market, rapeseed oil futures price this week, rapeseed oil main 2505 closed at 8444 yuan/ton on Friday. The main reason for the sharp drop in rapeseed oil is that the US USDA released guidelines for corn, soybeans and sorghum, which may be used as biofuels in the future and receive tax and other government support, but rapeseed is not included. The market is worried that rapeseed may not be used as a biofuel raw material. Secondly, Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be good, which is bearish for the soybean oil market, thereby dragging down rapeseed oil prices.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are strong in supply and weak in demand. Domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant, rapeseed oil inventory remains at a relatively high level, and as the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, market transactions are weak. The supply side continues to be under pressure, and the current situation of oversupply continues.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Palm oil production area inventory will decrease, supporting the rapeseed oil market. Soybean oil inventory will decline in the short term, but it is still higher than the same period last year. Soybean oil supply is loose. It is expected that rapeseed oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, but prices may rebound. The rapeseed oil market needs to pay close attention to the direction of Canada-US relations and the direction of US biodiesel policy.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the third week (January 13-January 17, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week. The main reason for the rise is that rapeseed meal prices are relatively low, and they are more cost-effective than soybean meal and other miscellaneous meals. At present, the rapeseed meal market is not very active in quoting. Feed companies have completed their stocking plans before the New Year, and the downstream loading and delivery time is concentrated this week. The oil mills' Spring Festival start-up and shutdown plans have not yet been clarified, and the overall start-up rate remains at a median level. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. In the later period, we will pay more attention to the soybean and rapeseed meal price difference, sunflower and rapeseed meal price difference, port arrival volume and start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.