Peanut, peanut oil and peanut meal trading overview and analysis forecast (week 3, 2025)

01 Peanut

In the third week (January 13-January 17, 2025), the national average price of peanuts is 8,450 yuan/ton. The prices of peanuts in various regions are shown in the following table:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of peanuts remained basically stable; peanuts fell steadily. The recent profit margin of peanuts is not high, so the cost-effectiveness of imported peanuts is not high, and the import volume continues to decline. The overall supply volume of peanuts in the current domestic production areas has not changed significantly. The supply volume at the grassroots level in some production areas has increased, and traders in the production areas have a strong willingness to ship. The peanut wholesale market has replenished stocks in small quantities. Most of the purchasers in the production areas have stopped purchasing and closed down, and the domestic market's stocking activities have basically ended. The purchase of Luhua and Yihai oil mills is also coming to an end, and the arrival volume has decreased. The atmosphere of buying and selling before the New Year is strong in the peanut market.

In terms of peanut demand, oil mills replenish stocks on demand, and the speed of moving goods is not fast. The profit of oil mills has been in a long-term loss, the operating rate has declined, and the inventory accumulation is at a high level. The feedback from the oil mills is not optimistic about the peanut market after the holiday, and it is expected to be a strategy of harvesting as needed. In terms of peanut supply, the effect of bumper harvests is dependent, and the supply of peanuts is sufficient, which is bearish for the peanut market.

In general, peanuts are in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and there is limited upward space. Against the backdrop of relatively weak demand, if shipments from production areas increase, supply pressure in the production areas will become apparent and peanut prices will adjust accordingly.

02 Peanut oil

In the third week (January 13-January 17, 2025), the national average price of peanut oil is: 15,500 yuan/ton. The reference price is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of ordinary peanut oil rose, while the price of small-pressed fragrant peanut oil remained stable. In terms of demand, the number of gifts given during the Spring Festival increased, and the sales of peanut oil accelerated. The demand was relatively strong, which was good for the peanut oil market. In terms of supply, due to poor profits and inverted prices, the operating rate of oil mills fell, and the supply pressure of peanut oil was slightly reduced. The price of the three major oils fell, dragging down the peanut oil market. It is expected that in the short term, the price of peanut oil is likely to remain stable. The bumper harvest of peanuts and the increase in peanut oil production are bad for the peanut oil market, so the price of peanut oil may remain stable.

03 Peanut meal

The reference prices of peanut meal in various regions in the third week (January 13-January 17, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of peanut meal has been stable with a slight increase. The USDA report data is positive, boosting the bean market, and the rise in soybean meal has boosted the peanut meal market. Due to the recent decline in the operating rate. On the supply side, the supply pressure of peanut meal has eased slightly, and on the demand side, the sales speed is not fast and the demand is general. It is expected that the price of peanut meal will be stable in the short term, but the supply of peanut meal is still sufficient in the near future, and the price of peanut meal may still fall.