Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 6, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 6th week (February 5-February 7, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 2.972 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.10-3.14 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China were stable. The overall supply and demand of domestic rapeseed is relatively balanced, and the price remains basically unchanged. The inventory of domestic high-quality rapeseed has bottomed out, and traders are willing to support prices, which supports the domestic rapeseed market. In terms of international rapeseed, the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in my country has declined significantly, and the operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil plants was at a low level during the Spring Festival. The number of rapeseed ships arriving at the port in January and February was relatively small, and the start-up time of various oil plants was delayed after the holiday. In addition, since Trump officially signed an order on February 1 to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, the export of Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal has been affected. Changes in foreign tariff policies may lead to an increase in the arrival volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed in my country in the future, and increase the supply of rapeseed in the forward market.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant in the near future, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level, so the demand for rapeseed is weak. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 6th week (February 5-February 7, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,580 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 8792 yuan/ton on Friday. The reasons for the sharp rise in rapeseed oil are: first, the seasonal reduction in palm oil production supports the oil market; second, the United States imposes a 25% tariff on Canada, which leads to tensions between the United States and Canada, and the development direction of rapeseed is unclear; third, there is still uncertainty in the weather in South America, and the La Nina phenomenon may affect the production in southern Brazil and northern Argentina, supporting the soybean oil market, so it is good for the rapeseed oil market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant, and the rapeseed oil inventory remains at a relatively high level. The market transaction is weak after the holiday. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil plants is at a low level after the Spring Festival. The number of rapeseed ships arriving at the port in January and February is relatively small, and the start-up time of each oil plant after the holiday has been delayed. The pressure on the supply side has eased, but the supply volume is at a high level.

It is expected that the rapeseed oil futures price will fluctuate and close higher in the short term, and the palm oil production area inventory will decrease, supporting the rapeseed oil market. The rapeseed oil market needs to pay close attention to the direction of Canada-US relations and the direction of US biodiesel policy.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 6 (February 5-February 7, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week. The main reason for the rise is that the continuous rainfall in Brazil has begun to affect the harvest progress of the new season soybeans, and the soybean meal price has risen, boosting the rapeseed meal market. After the downstream feed companies resumed work, the purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the market transactions were small. The oil mill’s Spring Festival start-up and shutdown plan has not yet been clarified, and the overall start-up rate remains at a low level. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean and rapeseed meal price difference, sunflower and rapeseed meal price difference, port arrival volume and start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.