Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (2025, Week 11)

01 Rapeseed

In the 11th week (March 10-March 14, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 3.010 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country remained basically stable. The rapeseed inventory in Yunnan was small and the price rose slightly. At present, the trading atmosphere in various domestic markets is general, the inventory is low, traders are willing to support prices, and the price of high-quality sources is relatively strong, which is good for rapeseed prices. Oil mills replenish stocks on demand, and the domestic rapeseed market is relatively calm. It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. Recently, the supply of domestic rapeseed has been slightly tight, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal have risen at the same time, rapeseed crushing has good profits, and rapeseed crushing volume may continue to rise, which is good for the rapeseed market, so the price of rapeseed may rise. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

Canadian Rapeseed Market: Statistics Canada released a report on planting intentions for crops in 2025 on Wednesday, showing that Canada's oilseed area will decrease in 2025. Canadian farmers expect canola plantings to reach 21.646 million acres in 2025, down 1.7% from 22.01 million acres in 2024/25 and roughly in line with the five-year average. Due to the U.S. tariffs, Canadian canola prices have fallen, demand has been poor, and Canadian ICE has been operating weakly.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 11th week (March 10-March 14, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,178 yuan/ton, an increase of 310 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose sharply this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 9,175 yuan/ton on Friday. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the outlook for palm oil production in March is not optimistic, which supports the oil and fat market; second, the 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal has led to tight supply of rapeseed meal, boosting the rise of rapeseed oil.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The import volume of rapeseed to the port is low, and the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed oil and rapeseed has eased. However, in terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand is weak and rapeseed oil destocking is slow, so the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in my country is still high.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The current international trade situation is relatively tense, and policies such as Sino-US tariffs are constantly changing. The trade war among countries has caused the price of oil and fat market to rise. In the later period, pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States, as well as the arrival volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 11 (March 10-14, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose sharply this week. The main reason is that my country increased the tariff on Canadian oil residue by 100% on March 20, and my country's rapeseed meal imports rely on Canada. It is expected that my country's rapeseed meal supply will be tight in the future. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal areas is average, and the subsequent arrival at the port is uncertain, so the supply will be temporarily tightened. The aquaculture industry is about to start, and the demand for rapeseed meal is good, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will rise in the short term. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.