Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis (Week 52, 2024)

01 Rapeseed 

In the 52nd week (December 23-December 27, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.980 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country remained basically stable. Domestic high-quality rapeseed stocks bottomed out, and traders were willing to support prices, supporting the domestic rapeseed market. The aquaculture industry is in the off-season, and rapeseed meal demand is weak, which continues to suppress rapeseed prices. Oil mills replenish stocks on demand and dare not easily stock up, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. In terms of international rapeseed, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, lowering the forecast for the end-of-year rapeseed inventory in 2024/2025 to 1.25 million tons. The reduction in inventory slightly supports the price of rapeseed.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply and demand of the domestic rapeseed market has been relatively balanced recently, and the price has not changed much. As for imported rapeseed, due to the decline in import costs, the domestic rapeseed arrival volume may continue to increase, and the supply is loose, which is bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil 

In the 52nd week (December 23-December 27, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Futures market, rapeseed oil futures price this week, rapeseed oil main 2505 closed at 8992 yuan/ton on Friday. Indonesia is about to implement the B40 biodiesel plan, and will increase the palm oil content in biodiesel from 35% to 40% from January 1, 2025, which is good for the palm oil market. There are rumors that my country will start an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which has boosted the rapeseed oil market. The expectation of reduced demand for US soybean oil biodiesel has brought great pressure to the market, and the strong expectation of bumper soybean production in South America continues to restrain the prices of US soybeans and soybean oil.

In the spot market, domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant in the short term, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remains high, and rapeseed oil stocks are sufficient, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The demand for rapeseed oil market is stable, rapeseed oil stocks are high, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand. The global reduction in rapeseed production is a foregone conclusion, and coastal inventory data show that the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is relatively loose.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand for rapeseed oil will not change for the time being. The oil and fat market is relatively stable, and global oil and fat have not changed much.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 52 (December 23-December 27, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal rose this week. On the supply side, rapeseed meal supply is still sufficient as coastal oil mills maintain a high operating rate. On the demand side, the aquatic industry is gradually entering the off-season, but the downstream has a good rhythm of stocking up before the New Year, which leads to a relatively large demand for rapeseed meal, which is good for the rapeseed meal market.

It is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and soybean meal has a better price-performance ratio than rapeseed meal, which suppresses the rapeseed meal market. There are no obvious bullish factors in the market, so rapeseed meal is mainly stable. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower meal and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the operating situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China and Canada and China and the United States.