Rapeseed, Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal Trading Overview and Analysis Forecast (First Week of 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the first week (December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 2.968 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.85-2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China remained basically stable. Due to the relatively balanced supply and demand, the price remained basically unchanged. The inventory of domestic high-quality rapeseed has bottomed out, and traders are willing to support prices, which supports the domestic rapeseed market. The aquaculture industry is in the off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak, which continues to suppress rapeseed prices. Recently, the purchase of rapeseed ships has decreased, and the pressure on imported rapeseed inventory has decreased, which is good for the rapeseed market. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal have both fallen, which is bad for the rapeseed market.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term, and the supply and demand of the domestic rapeseed market will remain relatively balanced in the near future. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In the first week (December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,910 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Futures market, rapeseed oil futures price this week, rapeseed oil main 2505 closed at 8812 yuan/ton on Friday. From a fundamental point of view, rapeseed oil has performed the weakest among the three major oils recently. Rapeseed oil inventory is on an upward trend and continues to accumulate, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. As Indonesia's B40 plan is still unclear, it drags down the palm oil market, thereby driving rapeseed oil down. There is no latest substantive progress in the Sino-Canadian trade conflict, and there is uncertainty in the rapeseed oil market, so traders are more cautious.

In the spot market, domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant in the short term, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remains high, and rapeseed oil inventory is sufficient and continues to accumulate, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. Rapeseed oil market demand is stable, rapeseed oil inventory is high, and rapeseed oil fundamentals are strong in supply and weak in demand.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand for rapeseed oil will not change for the time being. Pay more attention to the supply and demand of soybean oil and the implementation of B40 in the later stage.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the first week (December 30, 2024-January 3, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal fell this week. On the supply side, as coastal oil mills maintain a high operating rate, the supply of rapeseed meal is still sufficient, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. On the demand side, rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off-season, and the rigid support is weakened. However, the downstream pre-year stocking rhythm is good, which leads to a relatively increased demand for rapeseed meal, which slightly supports the rapeseed meal market. Rapeseed has bought fewer ships recently, which indirectly reduces the supply pressure of rapeseed meal. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower meal and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the operating situation, and continue to pay attention to the Sino-Canada and Sino-US trade relations.